Last of Muslim Brotherhood key leaders arrested. End of Egyptian Revolution or another breaking point?

Former senior adviser to the ousted President Mohammed Morsi, Essam el-Erian, also a top Muslim Brotherhood senior official, was arrested in a villa in an eastern Cairo suburb on October 30. "Erian's arrest comes five days before Morsi, who is being held incommunicado, is scheduled for trial on charges that he incited violence and ordered the killing of demonstrators outside the presidential palace in December."His arrest throws a damaging blow to the Egyptian movement as Mr. Erian was one of the few left senior officials who had not been incarcerated by military authorities. Erian had been on the run evading authorities since Morsi was ousted in July. Mr. Erian had not been seen since the military took power in July, the ministry is claiming that his location was given as an anonymous tip. Erian is being charged with "inciting violence in response of President Morsi." Numerous raids in throughout many provinces were conducted in the search for Erian. In September the Muslim Brotherhood was banned from the Egyptian government and was completely defunded. According to Erian's lawyer, "this is a continuation of the systematic arrest of all the national figures who oppose the coup." He went on to say the arrests of Muslim Brotherhood officials would not "affect the opposition to the coup."

In our opinion it appears that the current military coup is reluctant to give the Muslim Brotherhood any form of legitimate political standing. This only contradicts al-Sisi's statement in September that the military would not seek any form of political power. Could this mean Adly Mansour, who is the current interim president, is al-Sisi's lap dog until it is confirmed that al-Sisi will run for the presidency? Erian's arrest could ultimately mean the end of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood given the fact that most of its key leaders have been detained by the military and who are charged with inciting violence against the interim government. Mansour and al-Sisi could potentially end the violent protest once all of the Muslim Brotherhood leaders have been put on trial; however, the people have proven to be reluctant even when the odds were against them. Morsi's trial, that will begin on monday, either represent the end or continuation of the Egyptian Revolution. 

                                         Essam el-Erian

Complications for the OPCW in Their Effort to Inspect Chemical Production Sites

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) have been able to inspect 21 out of the 23 chemical weapon production sites in Syria.  With the deadline to inspect and shut down the two remaining sites fast approaching, conditions preventing the inspectors from getting there have not subsided.  The OPCW have not said who is responsible for the security concerns, but have negotiations in place to ensure the safety of inspectors as they try to reach the final sites.  Resolution 2118 has been put in place, in which it is agreed upon that the chemical weapon production equipment has to be destroyed by November 1, 2013 and the chemical stockpile must be destroyed by mid-2014.  While strides have been taken to rid the country of chemical weapons, little change has been made in regard to the fighting between government forces and rebel forces.

The fact that the OPCW has been able to reach the majority of chemical weapon production sites within Syria has shown that tremendous progress has been made in the effort to get rid of the weapons.  Unfortunately, the lack of effort put into ending fighting between the government and the rebels has shown that their lack of cooperation in that regard is going to lead to difficulties for the OPCW in carrying out their mission.  Without some sort of political resolution the country will continue to face conflict and turmoil, and the living conditions for civilians will not improve.  It is unclear how long it will take for a political compromise to be met, but it is likely it will not be in the near future.

Two Syria Chemical Weapons Sites Not Yet Inspected. BBC News. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24712508. 

Terrorists Closer to Home

Refugees

An old side effect of Mexican drug cartel violence is surging into prominence, the immigration to the U.S from Mexico should actually be classified as more of a mass exodus. The merciless cartels such as Knights Templar have begun being so violent and killed so many people that tens of thousands are fleeing Mexico attempting to find safe haven in the U.S. A total of 23,000 people are seeking asylum already within the first nine months of 2013. The Knights cartel has relatively recently taken territory from La Familia, who ruled their domain with significantly less brutality. Antonio Chavez a 47 year-old resident of La Ruana, Michoaca, has finally chosen to flee after enforcers of the Knights Templar drug cartel that if he didn’t pay $150 a month to play music on his phone in his store that if he didn’t pay they would kill him. This is a drug cartel known for decapitating people who don’t do as they are told or that are viewed as a threat. This number of refugee requests for asylum has quadrupled in growth and, according to villagers and human rights groups it reflects the growth of drug cartels against Mexican citizens of the territories they claim. Many people have lost a lot of family to cartel violence, and don’t want to follow their family to the cemetery, if they were lucky enough to be buried. Carlos Gutierrez, a 35 year-old resident of Chihuahua, says enforcers of La Linea cut his feet off because he couldn’t pay $10,000 a month in “fees” to pay Los Zetas the most cutthroat and ruthless cartel in Mexico. I don’t know anyone, personally, who makes $10,000 a month let alone can afford to give that away, however, with corruption so regular and widespread there is no one to defend the residents from the cartels. It is extremely upsetting to know this goes on in a country we are neighbors with and instead of taking care of local threats we’ve been focusing on other countries for the last dozen years, the Middle East and now Syria.

Sources Cited: Hastings, D. (2013) Fleeing wrath of vicious cartels, record-breaking numbers of Mexicans seek political asylum in the U.S., New York Daily News, no vol #, n.p.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/mexicans-fleeing-drug-cartel-mayhem-seek-ing-u-s-asylum-record-breaking-numbers-article-1.1493183#ixzz2inouNR5T

The Greek economy is predicted to recover in 2014, but...

Summary The Greek national budget for 2014 predicts a slight surplus, but critics believe that it is too optimistic and that the country is still far from an economic recovery. 

In a previous post, we wrote about how the Greek ministry of finance is optimistic about the budget for 2014, and how it is predicted that they will even have a slight budget surplus before interest. The economy is also predicted to grow by about 0.6%, mainly through exports, tourism and a rebound in investments. 

Now that the Greek crisis is showing slight improvements, the IMF and EU will be more open to the possibility of giving further aid and debt relief. However, there are several criticism about the 2014 budget which may derail Greece's plan and hope for 2014. First of all, the pension fund deficit is predicted to be higher than first assumed, while tax revenues might be lower than first expected, efficiently eating up the tiny surplus (about 340 million euro) that the Greek expected to have and more. Even if these factors were not present, there are serious doubts that Greece will ever be able to pay back its debt completely due to the sheer size of it. 

Also, an article in International Business Times from September 30th shows how retail sales decreased in July 2013. This was most likely a reflection of the fact that wages for employed greeks (there is still a 27% unemployment rate) have decreased by 7.5%, giving them even less spending power than they already have. As shown in other recessions, an important aspect of recovering an economy is to stimulate the economy by putting money back into hospitality and retail. 

As previously mentioned, a part of the predicted economic growth will be through tourism. However, tourism is an industry that is very sensitive to outside factors such as climate, political stability and trends. It also peaks during summer months, so predictions are hard to make since summers aren't necessarily an indication of how a country will be for the rest of the year. This summer, the political unrest in Northern Africa and Middle East gave holidayers incentives to go elsewhere, and the renewed faith in the Euro and Greece's place in the eurozone, let Greece benefit from these political factors. However, such factors can only be predicted to a certain degree, so the tourism for 2014 might bring in more money than predicted, but the pendulum can easily swing the other way too. 

As such, because the Greek budget for 2014 is so marginally in the surplus, it will not take a lot for it to go back in the red numbers. However, with new faith in Greece's ability to demand taxes and lower public spending, it will be easier for the country to attract more tourists. While the country will be in need of aid and bailouts from EU and the IMF for years to follow, it seems to have been able to put itself on the right track. 

Articles consulted and referred to in this post 
Reuters. "Greece set to emerge from recession next year, says draft 2014 budget." the Guardian. N.p., 7 Oct. 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2013. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/07/greece-euro.

Reuters. "Greece at odds with EU/IMF lenders over 2014 budget gap ." Reuters. N.p., 8 Oct. 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2013. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/18/greece-fiscalgap-idUSL6N0I827X20131018.

Rudarakanchana, Nat. "Greeks Not Bearing Gifts, Latest Economic Data Show." International Business Times. N.p., 30 Sept. 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2013. http://www.ibtimes.com/greeks-not-bearing-gifts-latest-economic-data-show-1412726.

Rudarakanchana, Nat. "Greek Tourism Could Boost GDP To Historic Levels – At Least For a Brief, Fleeting Period." International Business Times. N.p., 17 Sept. 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2013. http://www.ibtimes.com/greek-tourism-could-boost-gdp-historic-levels-least-brief-fleeting-period-1406964.

EU and IMF to the rescue?

 
     The Greek budget for 2014 is starting to show light at the end of the tunnel. The Greek Government has predicted that there will be a slight budge surplus before interests are paid to its debtors. They have also announced that the economy is predicted to grow about 0.6%, mainly through exports, tourism, and a rebound in investments. 

     Now that the Greek crisis is showing slight improvements, the IMF and EU seemed to also open up to the possibility of further debt relief. However, critics continue to hold pessimistic opinions because the pension fund deficit is predicted to be higher than first assumed and tax revenues will be lower than first expected. These two points result in the Greek Government having less money to pay back their debts. They believe that Greece will never be able to recover from the debt they are in and rely way to heavily on aid from the EU and IMF. 

The Guardian. 2013 October 18. Greece set to emerge from rescession next yea, says draft 2014 Budget. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/07/greece-euro

Reuters. 2013 October 18. Greece at Odds with EU/IMF Lenders over 2014 Budget Gap.  http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/18/greece-fiscalgap-idUSL6N0I827X20131018

Killings Follow Arab-Israeli War Anniversary

Sunday the 6th of October marked the 40th anniversary of the Arab-Israeli war. Supporters of deposed President Morsi were confronted by the police as they tried to converge in Cairo's Tahrir for the celebrations. A spokesman for the health ministry reported 46 deaths in Cairo, five more further south of the capital and a total of 268 casualties across Egypt. Al-Azhar University student, Mostafa Ramadan, a casualty of Sunday's conflict claims to have been walking peacefully in the march from Mohandesseen when he was hit in the head by a rock and his hand struck with birdshot. Ramadan told an Al-Jazeera reporter,  "We kept saying we are peaceful, but they cursed us and started firing tear-gas bombs on us and live ammunition." Furthermore, it has been reported that Sundays death toll was the highest since August when over 1000 people were killed. According to an Interior Ministry Statement, police are said to have arrested 423 protesters in Cairo, on account of firing rounds of bird shot and vandalizing the capital. Although Tahrir Square had previously been a place of gathering, in February 2011 in order to force President Hosni Mubarak to step down and again in July 2013 to depose President Morsi, the entrance to the square was blocked off to the thousands of supporters that arrived on Sunday waving Egyptian flags. 

Ironically, the highest death toll since August, seen in Egypt., came about as a result of the Arab-Israeli War anniversary celebrations.  Similar to the riddle in the cartoon above, what started out as a march, ended not as a march but as a massacre. Just as the Sphinx asks, "Who cares?," one must wonder, does Egypt's governing powers care?  


References
Al Jazeera. (2013). Scores killed as egypt marks war anniversary.
Retrieved 10/25, 2013, from  
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/10/egypt-warns-against-anniversary-protests-
201310654657557552.html

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China in China

China’s economy has proven itself resilient and adaptable. During the financial crisis of 2008 the PRC stimulated the economy by investing in domestic infrastructure through the construction of roads, railways, and airports. They were able to increase GDP in a world economy that was plagued by recession. But now China faces a new challenge, choosing between rapid short-term growth or long-term sustainability. With an economy characterized by low interest rates and government subsidies irresponsible borrowing has become a serious issue. This economic system favors producers rather than savers forcing down household income resulting in relatively low household consumption.

The lack of domestic consumption in China has become their main concern. With the release of the 12^th Five-Year Plan outlining the reforms needed to rely less on exports and increase consumer spending economic change is underway. Will the world’s largest exporter be able to change gears so rapidly? Will she become an economy driven by domestic consumption rather than foreign consumption? Will China be able to shift from unsustainable growth to sustainability? Only time will tell, but with an eleven out of eleven on five-year plans and a ruthless business attitude the odds are in her favor.

Cited:

Amadeo, K. (3013, August 6). China's Economy. About.com US Economy. Retrieved October 23, 2013, from http://useconomy.about.com/od/worldeconomy/p/China_Economy.html

Pettis, M. (2013, September 2). China has a choice. Financial Times. Retrieved October 23, 2013, from http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/18446f64-11a7-11e3-8321-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2iegy5MSQ

Chemical Weapon Destruction Deadline to be Met

A spokesman for the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) stated earlier this week that the deadline for destroying all equipment used in the making of chemical weapons will likely be met.  This deadline is set for November 1, and marks a milestone in the efforts to relieve tension within the country's borders.  Inspectors for the OPCW have visited 18 of the 23 chemical weapons sites have have stated that the Syrian government is being very cooperative.  Norway has considered the request of the OPCW to destroy the Syrian stockpile of chemical weapons, nearly 50 tons of mustard gas and 500 tons of nerve agent precursors.  An official destruction plan will be decided upon at a meeting for the OPCW executive council in Hague this November.

The immense progress that has taken place in regard to the removal of chemical weapons from Syria shows that the syrian government has been cooperative throughout the removal process and will most likely continue their cooperation throughout the rest of the process.  Though it is still unclear where exactly the weapons are being taken or where they are being destroyed, the efforts by the OPCW and countries such as Norway has shown that an international agreement is in the near future.  Overall, the efforts of the OPCW and the Syrian government to remove the weapons shows that the issue is moving in a positive direction and strong efforts are being made to relieve tension in syria.

Borger, Julian. (2013) Syria Deadline for Chemical Weapons Destruction Will be Met, Says OPCW. The Guardian. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/23/syria-deadline-chemical-weapons-opcw.

Surprise, Surprise.

It seems that the Fukushima nuclear power plant near the Okuma town is in a constant battle with Japan’s weather forecast.  The power plant is “bracing itself for Typhoon Francisco, set to hit the country this weekend”.  The operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) plans to avoid a disaster by moving the contaminated water into underground storage pools previously deemed unsafe due to leaks. Unfortunately time has left no alternative options and workers are preparing for their most dangerous cleanup operation yet attempting to remove “400 tons of spent fuel from Reactor No. 4.”

What’s the deal TEPCO? In earlier posts we mentioned that the time for another disaster was sooner than later, and here we are scrambling to figure out the next move to prevent radiation leaks. We’ve witnessed disaster with moving the water to underground storage pools after the leaks occurred earlier this year, how do we know this won’t happen again? The costs of the disaster are starting to batter Japan’s economy but more importantly, we have an increasingly urgent need to prevent severe radiological disaster.  The lightest tremors could trigger catastrophic leaks; let’s hope Typhoon Francisco doesn’t devastate the power plant before TEPCO finds legitimate ways to fix it.

Fukushima moves radioactive water as it braces for typhoon francisco. (October, 2013 24). Retrieved from http://rt.com/news/fukushima-typhoon-radioactive-water-658/

Johnson, A. (October, 2013 17). Typhoon francisco, following wipha's deadly path, drenches guam on its way to japan. Retrieved from http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/17/21015024-typhoon-francisco-following-wiphas-deadly-path-drenches-guam-on-its-way-to-japan?lite

Chinese intrests in American Real Estate

                While the popping of the housing bubble in 2008 was devastating to many Americans, it presented a golden opportunity to those who had the capitol to purchase the low-priced real estate. This event could not have happened at a better time for the People’s Republic of China, who were on a quest to procure the most valuable resources the world has to offer. While China currently is attempting to purchase property in major countries around the world, its number one focus is the United States. Having invested over $1.4 Billion on American property, mainly in San Francisco, New York and Houston, China’s next largest investment are is Hong Kong, where China spent $489 Million. While Chinese investors say the rate of return is not as high as other areas, the American markets provide stability to their portfolios.

                Overall, this is a smart move for the Middle Kingdom; not only are they investing in assets that have nowhere else to go but up, but also in the American Dollar, which continues to be one of the most stable currencies in the global market. This rings especially true in cities like San Francisco, where the housing market has raised by 30% this past quarter. Although this arrangement is beneficial to Chine investors, it is detrimental to those pursuing the American dream of home ownership. As of this current time though, individuals continue to rent these properties at these heightened profits, fueling the current investors profits as well as enticing the desire of future investments from more Chinese.

• Fung, E. (n.d.). Chinese Property Investors Widen Footprint in U.S. - WSJ.com. The Wall Street Journal - Breaking News, Business, Financial and Economic News, World News & Video - Wall Street Journal - Wsj.com. Retrieved October 19, 2013, from http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303983904579094723756080610
• Rapoza, K. (n.d.). Chinese To Spend Billions On American Real Estate - Forbes. Information for the World's Business Leaders - Forbes.com. Retrieved October 19, 2013, from http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/07/10/chinese-to-spend-billions-on-american-real-estate/

The Costly Death Struggle in Mexico

This week’s news is more than a little shocking. I start off with news that according to the Examiner, more than 80,000 people have died due to the Mexican War on Drugs. This number is still growing and the article puts it in comparison by using the Vietnam War as an example. 58,000 Americans died in the Vietnam War, so the 80,000 that have been killed is comparable now to a full fledged war, that carries large historical value. This eight year long war currently has no end in site; while the Mexican government still looks for solutions. Currently, President Pena Nieto is looking to reduce homicides and prevent crime, and although he has not taken a stance against (or for) legalizing marijuana, this issue still arises in Mexico City. According to the Time article, “North America’s Largest City Moves to Legalize Pot” it is said that legislators are looking to legalize pot, so they can regulate the high consumption in the city. There are many political figureheads who are publicly for this option, including former President Vicente Fox. Hernández of Cupihd says, “This is not an issue of left against right. Many in the political class are coming to realize that something has to be done.”

        Hernandez is right, the time for a change is now, the increasing number of deaths and displacement of the Mexican people needs to end. This will only happen if surrounding nations will grow to lead a revolution against this ongoing war. The Mexican legislators in support of the bill to pass marijuana state that it would set a precedence on how to go about regulating marijuana, so that way the rest of the country can follow and then too hopefully larger nations will join in. The Mexican drug war, has caused some trepidation for those crossing borders since there is so much violence, but the lack of action by the Mexican and American governments will only continue to harm this process. We will continue to see the death toll rise, until a fundamental change is made in the way combatting this war.

Kouri, Jim. (2013,October, 17)."Number of Mexicans killed in drug war surpasses that of    Yanks killed in Vietnam". Examiner. Retrieved from http://www.examiner.com/article/number-of-mexicans-killed-drug-war-surpasses-that-of-yanks-killed-vietnam

Grillo, Ioan. (2013, October 17). “North America’s Largest City Moves to Legalize Pot”. TIME. Retrieved from http://world.time.com/2013/10/14/north-americas-largest-city-moves-to-legalize-pot/#ixzz2i2OEp1uq.

China in Canada

It is worth notice that much of China’s investment went into roads, bridges, factories and ports, all of which helped propel China’s economic ranking past the U.K., Germany, and Japan within the past decade. Over the recent few years, Chinese firms kept coming to North America, but they tended to tiptoe in, buying up small energy firms, minority stakes in bigger companies or working interest in specific projects. Canada's economic reliance on the U.S. has ebbed for decades amid sporadic efforts to diversify. But weak demand from a prolonged economic downturn south of the border has accelerated the move, sending Canadian companies looking for new markets. Since China also required commodities like coking coal, a key steel-making ingredient, this benefited Canadian commodity producers. The Vancouver-based company ships about 15 to 20 per cent of the 25 million tonnes of coking coal it produces annually to China, according to analysts. For example, Ford Motor Co. said on Wednesday that its second-quarter results were boosted by a strong performance in the Asia-Pacific, including China. At the same time, China is the biggest potash consumer in the world. In March, Igor Medge , the vice president of AgriKalum, a Saskatoon-based potash-mining start-up, was trolling for around $2 billion in financing at a Toronto mining conference swarming with Chinese executives and government officials.

The shift is sharpest here in Western Canada, rich in resources and closer to China. Last year for the first time ever, British Columbia sent more exports to the Pacific Rim than to the U.S. Chinese investors have beat out U.S. investors in Canada's oil patch every year since 2009, pumping $12.8 billion into companies and projects since then. What’s more, Chinese companies started to pour billions into Canadian energy companies. In late 2008, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., also known as Sinopec, said it would buy Canada's Tanganyika Oil Co., which had most of its production in Syria, for $2 billion. A year later, Sinopec struck again, buying Addax Petroleum, another Canadian-listed firm with operations in Iraq and West Africa, for $7.2 billion. China is progressively expanding her influence in North America by investing in resource and energy industry. It is apparent that “diversification” is her fundamental, strategic objective, to get the resources from where they are to where they are wanted.

 

1.     The Wall Street Journal, 2013. Resource-Rich Canada Looks to China for Growth http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304177104577311921156382152 (accessed May 13, 2013).

2.     The Wall Street Journal, 2013. Canada’s Growing China Trade Connection http://live.wsj.com/video/canada-growing-china-trade-connection/C5EC68E9-3404-4344-A5B7-D94C4888D0D3.html#!C5EC68E9-3404-4344-A5B7-D94C4888D0D3