Last of Muslim Brotherhood key leaders arrested. End of Egyptian Revolution or another breaking point?

Former senior adviser to the ousted President Mohammed Morsi, Essam el-Erian, also a top Muslim Brotherhood senior official, was arrested in a villa in an eastern Cairo suburb on October 30. "Erian's arrest comes five days before Morsi, who is being held incommunicado, is scheduled for trial on charges that he incited violence and ordered the killing of demonstrators outside the presidential palace in December."His arrest throws a damaging blow to the Egyptian movement as Mr. Erian was one of the few left senior officials who had not been incarcerated by military authorities. Erian had been on the run evading authorities since Morsi was ousted in July. Mr. Erian had not been seen since the military took power in July, the ministry is claiming that his location was given as an anonymous tip. Erian is being charged with "inciting violence in response of President Morsi." Numerous raids in throughout many provinces were conducted in the search for Erian. In September the Muslim Brotherhood was banned from the Egyptian government and was completely defunded. According to Erian's lawyer, "this is a continuation of the systematic arrest of all the national figures who oppose the coup." He went on to say the arrests of Muslim Brotherhood officials would not "affect the opposition to the coup."

In our opinion it appears that the current military coup is reluctant to give the Muslim Brotherhood any form of legitimate political standing. This only contradicts al-Sisi's statement in September that the military would not seek any form of political power. Could this mean Adly Mansour, who is the current interim president, is al-Sisi's lap dog until it is confirmed that al-Sisi will run for the presidency? Erian's arrest could ultimately mean the end of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood given the fact that most of its key leaders have been detained by the military and who are charged with inciting violence against the interim government. Mansour and al-Sisi could potentially end the violent protest once all of the Muslim Brotherhood leaders have been put on trial; however, the people have proven to be reluctant even when the odds were against them. Morsi's trial, that will begin on monday, either represent the end or continuation of the Egyptian Revolution. 

                                         Essam el-Erian

Complications for the OPCW in Their Effort to Inspect Chemical Production Sites

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) have been able to inspect 21 out of the 23 chemical weapon production sites in Syria.  With the deadline to inspect and shut down the two remaining sites fast approaching, conditions preventing the inspectors from getting there have not subsided.  The OPCW have not said who is responsible for the security concerns, but have negotiations in place to ensure the safety of inspectors as they try to reach the final sites.  Resolution 2118 has been put in place, in which it is agreed upon that the chemical weapon production equipment has to be destroyed by November 1, 2013 and the chemical stockpile must be destroyed by mid-2014.  While strides have been taken to rid the country of chemical weapons, little change has been made in regard to the fighting between government forces and rebel forces.

The fact that the OPCW has been able to reach the majority of chemical weapon production sites within Syria has shown that tremendous progress has been made in the effort to get rid of the weapons.  Unfortunately, the lack of effort put into ending fighting between the government and the rebels has shown that their lack of cooperation in that regard is going to lead to difficulties for the OPCW in carrying out their mission.  Without some sort of political resolution the country will continue to face conflict and turmoil, and the living conditions for civilians will not improve.  It is unclear how long it will take for a political compromise to be met, but it is likely it will not be in the near future.

Two Syria Chemical Weapons Sites Not Yet Inspected. BBC News. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24712508. 

Terrorists Closer to Home

Refugees

An old side effect of Mexican drug cartel violence is surging into prominence, the immigration to the U.S from Mexico should actually be classified as more of a mass exodus. The merciless cartels such as Knights Templar have begun being so violent and killed so many people that tens of thousands are fleeing Mexico attempting to find safe haven in the U.S. A total of 23,000 people are seeking asylum already within the first nine months of 2013. The Knights cartel has relatively recently taken territory from La Familia, who ruled their domain with significantly less brutality. Antonio Chavez a 47 year-old resident of La Ruana, Michoaca, has finally chosen to flee after enforcers of the Knights Templar drug cartel that if he didn’t pay $150 a month to play music on his phone in his store that if he didn’t pay they would kill him. This is a drug cartel known for decapitating people who don’t do as they are told or that are viewed as a threat. This number of refugee requests for asylum has quadrupled in growth and, according to villagers and human rights groups it reflects the growth of drug cartels against Mexican citizens of the territories they claim. Many people have lost a lot of family to cartel violence, and don’t want to follow their family to the cemetery, if they were lucky enough to be buried. Carlos Gutierrez, a 35 year-old resident of Chihuahua, says enforcers of La Linea cut his feet off because he couldn’t pay $10,000 a month in “fees” to pay Los Zetas the most cutthroat and ruthless cartel in Mexico. I don’t know anyone, personally, who makes $10,000 a month let alone can afford to give that away, however, with corruption so regular and widespread there is no one to defend the residents from the cartels. It is extremely upsetting to know this goes on in a country we are neighbors with and instead of taking care of local threats we’ve been focusing on other countries for the last dozen years, the Middle East and now Syria.

Sources Cited: Hastings, D. (2013) Fleeing wrath of vicious cartels, record-breaking numbers of Mexicans seek political asylum in the U.S., New York Daily News, no vol #, n.p.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/mexicans-fleeing-drug-cartel-mayhem-seek-ing-u-s-asylum-record-breaking-numbers-article-1.1493183#ixzz2inouNR5T

The Greek economy is predicted to recover in 2014, but...

Summary The Greek national budget for 2014 predicts a slight surplus, but critics believe that it is too optimistic and that the country is still far from an economic recovery. 

In a previous post, we wrote about how the Greek ministry of finance is optimistic about the budget for 2014, and how it is predicted that they will even have a slight budget surplus before interest. The economy is also predicted to grow by about 0.6%, mainly through exports, tourism and a rebound in investments. 

Now that the Greek crisis is showing slight improvements, the IMF and EU will be more open to the possibility of giving further aid and debt relief. However, there are several criticism about the 2014 budget which may derail Greece's plan and hope for 2014. First of all, the pension fund deficit is predicted to be higher than first assumed, while tax revenues might be lower than first expected, efficiently eating up the tiny surplus (about 340 million euro) that the Greek expected to have and more. Even if these factors were not present, there are serious doubts that Greece will ever be able to pay back its debt completely due to the sheer size of it. 

Also, an article in International Business Times from September 30th shows how retail sales decreased in July 2013. This was most likely a reflection of the fact that wages for employed greeks (there is still a 27% unemployment rate) have decreased by 7.5%, giving them even less spending power than they already have. As shown in other recessions, an important aspect of recovering an economy is to stimulate the economy by putting money back into hospitality and retail. 

As previously mentioned, a part of the predicted economic growth will be through tourism. However, tourism is an industry that is very sensitive to outside factors such as climate, political stability and trends. It also peaks during summer months, so predictions are hard to make since summers aren't necessarily an indication of how a country will be for the rest of the year. This summer, the political unrest in Northern Africa and Middle East gave holidayers incentives to go elsewhere, and the renewed faith in the Euro and Greece's place in the eurozone, let Greece benefit from these political factors. However, such factors can only be predicted to a certain degree, so the tourism for 2014 might bring in more money than predicted, but the pendulum can easily swing the other way too. 

As such, because the Greek budget for 2014 is so marginally in the surplus, it will not take a lot for it to go back in the red numbers. However, with new faith in Greece's ability to demand taxes and lower public spending, it will be easier for the country to attract more tourists. While the country will be in need of aid and bailouts from EU and the IMF for years to follow, it seems to have been able to put itself on the right track. 

Articles consulted and referred to in this post 
Reuters. "Greece set to emerge from recession next year, says draft 2014 budget." the Guardian. N.p., 7 Oct. 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2013. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/07/greece-euro.

Reuters. "Greece at odds with EU/IMF lenders over 2014 budget gap ." Reuters. N.p., 8 Oct. 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2013. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/18/greece-fiscalgap-idUSL6N0I827X20131018.

Rudarakanchana, Nat. "Greeks Not Bearing Gifts, Latest Economic Data Show." International Business Times. N.p., 30 Sept. 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2013. http://www.ibtimes.com/greeks-not-bearing-gifts-latest-economic-data-show-1412726.

Rudarakanchana, Nat. "Greek Tourism Could Boost GDP To Historic Levels – At Least For a Brief, Fleeting Period." International Business Times. N.p., 17 Sept. 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2013. http://www.ibtimes.com/greek-tourism-could-boost-gdp-historic-levels-least-brief-fleeting-period-1406964.

EU and IMF to the rescue?

 
     The Greek budget for 2014 is starting to show light at the end of the tunnel. The Greek Government has predicted that there will be a slight budge surplus before interests are paid to its debtors. They have also announced that the economy is predicted to grow about 0.6%, mainly through exports, tourism, and a rebound in investments. 

     Now that the Greek crisis is showing slight improvements, the IMF and EU seemed to also open up to the possibility of further debt relief. However, critics continue to hold pessimistic opinions because the pension fund deficit is predicted to be higher than first assumed and tax revenues will be lower than first expected. These two points result in the Greek Government having less money to pay back their debts. They believe that Greece will never be able to recover from the debt they are in and rely way to heavily on aid from the EU and IMF. 

The Guardian. 2013 October 18. Greece set to emerge from rescession next yea, says draft 2014 Budget. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/07/greece-euro

Reuters. 2013 October 18. Greece at Odds with EU/IMF Lenders over 2014 Budget Gap.  http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/18/greece-fiscalgap-idUSL6N0I827X20131018

Killings Follow Arab-Israeli War Anniversary

Sunday the 6th of October marked the 40th anniversary of the Arab-Israeli war. Supporters of deposed President Morsi were confronted by the police as they tried to converge in Cairo's Tahrir for the celebrations. A spokesman for the health ministry reported 46 deaths in Cairo, five more further south of the capital and a total of 268 casualties across Egypt. Al-Azhar University student, Mostafa Ramadan, a casualty of Sunday's conflict claims to have been walking peacefully in the march from Mohandesseen when he was hit in the head by a rock and his hand struck with birdshot. Ramadan told an Al-Jazeera reporter,  "We kept saying we are peaceful, but they cursed us and started firing tear-gas bombs on us and live ammunition." Furthermore, it has been reported that Sundays death toll was the highest since August when over 1000 people were killed. According to an Interior Ministry Statement, police are said to have arrested 423 protesters in Cairo, on account of firing rounds of bird shot and vandalizing the capital. Although Tahrir Square had previously been a place of gathering, in February 2011 in order to force President Hosni Mubarak to step down and again in July 2013 to depose President Morsi, the entrance to the square was blocked off to the thousands of supporters that arrived on Sunday waving Egyptian flags. 

Ironically, the highest death toll since August, seen in Egypt., came about as a result of the Arab-Israeli War anniversary celebrations.  Similar to the riddle in the cartoon above, what started out as a march, ended not as a march but as a massacre. Just as the Sphinx asks, "Who cares?," one must wonder, does Egypt's governing powers care?  


References
Al Jazeera. (2013). Scores killed as egypt marks war anniversary.
Retrieved 10/25, 2013, from  
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/10/egypt-warns-against-anniversary-protests-
201310654657557552.html

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China in China

China’s economy has proven itself resilient and adaptable. During the financial crisis of 2008 the PRC stimulated the economy by investing in domestic infrastructure through the construction of roads, railways, and airports. They were able to increase GDP in a world economy that was plagued by recession. But now China faces a new challenge, choosing between rapid short-term growth or long-term sustainability. With an economy characterized by low interest rates and government subsidies irresponsible borrowing has become a serious issue. This economic system favors producers rather than savers forcing down household income resulting in relatively low household consumption.

The lack of domestic consumption in China has become their main concern. With the release of the 12^th Five-Year Plan outlining the reforms needed to rely less on exports and increase consumer spending economic change is underway. Will the world’s largest exporter be able to change gears so rapidly? Will she become an economy driven by domestic consumption rather than foreign consumption? Will China be able to shift from unsustainable growth to sustainability? Only time will tell, but with an eleven out of eleven on five-year plans and a ruthless business attitude the odds are in her favor.

Cited:

Amadeo, K. (3013, August 6). China's Economy. About.com US Economy. Retrieved October 23, 2013, from http://useconomy.about.com/od/worldeconomy/p/China_Economy.html

Pettis, M. (2013, September 2). China has a choice. Financial Times. Retrieved October 23, 2013, from http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/18446f64-11a7-11e3-8321-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2iegy5MSQ