The Golden Dawn, or Modern Day Nazis?

The Golden Dawn is a political party that has recently regained a seat in the Hellenic Parliament, or the Parliament of Greece. Golden Dawn sought its opportunity to extend its political beliefs during Greece’s debt crisis. The extreme right party has received bad press for being a current day “authoritarian” or “neo-Nazi” party, especially with a symbol resembling to the Nazis’ swastika. The party came to power in 1985 under Nikos Michaloliakos.

Tensions rose again in Greece with death of an anti-fascist rapper, Pavlos Fyssas.Τhe Golden Dawn are linked to the crime, as a member of the party was arrested for the murder and after he was imprisoned he confessed his crime. After that, top leaders of the Golden Down were arrested with charges of forming and operating a criminal gang that terrorized the streets of the country. Among the individuals arrested is the main leader of the Golden Dawn, Michaloliakos, and other politicians. Hopefully, this neo-Nazi party will soon cease to exist.

Davidson, Kavitha. "Greek Man With Golden Dawn Ties Arrested In Stabbing Murder Of Pavlos Fyssas, Anti-Fascist Rapper." The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 21 Sept. 2013. Web. 1 Nov. 2013. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/21/pavlos-fyssas-murder-arrest_n_3967880.html>.

Smith, Helena. "Golden Dawn leader jailed ahead of Greek criminal trial." The Guardian. N.p., n.d. Web. 1 Nov. 2013. <http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/03/golden-dawn-leader-jailed-nikos-michaloliakos>.

Smith, Helena. "Golden Dawn leaders brought to court to face charges of murder and assault." the Guardian. N.p., n.d. Web. 1 Nov. 2013. <http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/01/golden-dawn-court-charges-murder-assault>.

Taube, Michael. "TAUBE: Shunning Greece’s Neo-Nazi ‘Golden Dawn’." The Washingtion Times. N.p., 9 Oct. 2013. Web. 01 Nov. 2013. <http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/oct/9/taube-shunning-greeces-neo-nazi-golden-dawn-wackos/?page=2>

China in Australia

        It comes as no surprise that China is the world's heaviest consumer of iron-ore (key component of steel), as well as being the second largest producer. Australia ranks first in iron-ore exports and their relationship with China regarding the world's most important commodity cargo after oil has become even more essential due to Chinese steel production and grade quality decreasing. Current trends indicate that iron imports to China will increase to one billion tons in 2018. Despite China's only increasing appetite for iron-ore, prices are not likely to rise so significantly because of Australia's responsive increase in iron-ore exports which are anticipated to grow at an 8% annual rate from now to 2018, when total output would be 874 million tonnes.

       Australia's booming iron-ore sector has been spurred by China's rapid industrialization, greatly helping their economy in this tough climate. Is it possible that there could be an iron-ore crisis in the future due to increasing global demands, particularly from China? It is not likely that this boom will become a bust for Australia's mining sector; however, China must properly plan its national strategy for iron ore resources. Two weeks ago, China initiated its first iron-ore futures contract giving them added control in setting market prices. For now, it is too early to predict the effects of the Dalian Commodity Exchange contracts but while there are few major suppliers of steel and China's foreign demand is strong, importers like Australia will continue to hold the benchmark for prices.

1. Behrmann, E. (2013). Iron-Ore Forecasts Raised by Australia as China Demand Jumps. Retrieved from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-02/australia-increases-iron-ore-estimate-on-chinese-demand-outlook.html

2. Bloomberg News. (2013). Dalian Iron Ore Futures Debut as China Seeks Pricing Power. Retrieved from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-17/iron-ore-futures-debut-in-dalian-as-china-seeks-pricing-power.html

3. Russell, C. (2013). China iron ore futures start strongly, but long way from domination. Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/31/column-russell-china-ironore-idUSL3N0IL19R20131031

Last of Muslim Brotherhood key leaders arrested. End of Egyptian Revolution or another breaking point?

Former senior adviser to the ousted President Mohammed Morsi, Essam el-Erian, also a top Muslim Brotherhood senior official, was arrested in a villa in an eastern Cairo suburb on October 30. "Erian's arrest comes five days before Morsi, who is being held incommunicado, is scheduled for trial on charges that he incited violence and ordered the killing of demonstrators outside the presidential palace in December."His arrest throws a damaging blow to the Egyptian movement as Mr. Erian was one of the few left senior officials who had not been incarcerated by military authorities. Erian had been on the run evading authorities since Morsi was ousted in July. Mr. Erian had not been seen since the military took power in July, the ministry is claiming that his location was given as an anonymous tip. Erian is being charged with "inciting violence in response of President Morsi." Numerous raids in throughout many provinces were conducted in the search for Erian. In September the Muslim Brotherhood was banned from the Egyptian government and was completely defunded. According to Erian's lawyer, "this is a continuation of the systematic arrest of all the national figures who oppose the coup." He went on to say the arrests of Muslim Brotherhood officials would not "affect the opposition to the coup."

In our opinion it appears that the current military coup is reluctant to give the Muslim Brotherhood any form of legitimate political standing. This only contradicts al-Sisi's statement in September that the military would not seek any form of political power. Could this mean Adly Mansour, who is the current interim president, is al-Sisi's lap dog until it is confirmed that al-Sisi will run for the presidency? Erian's arrest could ultimately mean the end of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood given the fact that most of its key leaders have been detained by the military and who are charged with inciting violence against the interim government. Mansour and al-Sisi could potentially end the violent protest once all of the Muslim Brotherhood leaders have been put on trial; however, the people have proven to be reluctant even when the odds were against them. Morsi's trial, that will begin on monday, either represent the end or continuation of the Egyptian Revolution. 

                                         Essam el-Erian

Complications for the OPCW in Their Effort to Inspect Chemical Production Sites

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) have been able to inspect 21 out of the 23 chemical weapon production sites in Syria.  With the deadline to inspect and shut down the two remaining sites fast approaching, conditions preventing the inspectors from getting there have not subsided.  The OPCW have not said who is responsible for the security concerns, but have negotiations in place to ensure the safety of inspectors as they try to reach the final sites.  Resolution 2118 has been put in place, in which it is agreed upon that the chemical weapon production equipment has to be destroyed by November 1, 2013 and the chemical stockpile must be destroyed by mid-2014.  While strides have been taken to rid the country of chemical weapons, little change has been made in regard to the fighting between government forces and rebel forces.

The fact that the OPCW has been able to reach the majority of chemical weapon production sites within Syria has shown that tremendous progress has been made in the effort to get rid of the weapons.  Unfortunately, the lack of effort put into ending fighting between the government and the rebels has shown that their lack of cooperation in that regard is going to lead to difficulties for the OPCW in carrying out their mission.  Without some sort of political resolution the country will continue to face conflict and turmoil, and the living conditions for civilians will not improve.  It is unclear how long it will take for a political compromise to be met, but it is likely it will not be in the near future.

Two Syria Chemical Weapons Sites Not Yet Inspected. BBC News. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24712508. 

Terrorists Closer to Home

Refugees

An old side effect of Mexican drug cartel violence is surging into prominence, the immigration to the U.S from Mexico should actually be classified as more of a mass exodus. The merciless cartels such as Knights Templar have begun being so violent and killed so many people that tens of thousands are fleeing Mexico attempting to find safe haven in the U.S. A total of 23,000 people are seeking asylum already within the first nine months of 2013. The Knights cartel has relatively recently taken territory from La Familia, who ruled their domain with significantly less brutality. Antonio Chavez a 47 year-old resident of La Ruana, Michoaca, has finally chosen to flee after enforcers of the Knights Templar drug cartel that if he didn’t pay $150 a month to play music on his phone in his store that if he didn’t pay they would kill him. This is a drug cartel known for decapitating people who don’t do as they are told or that are viewed as a threat. This number of refugee requests for asylum has quadrupled in growth and, according to villagers and human rights groups it reflects the growth of drug cartels against Mexican citizens of the territories they claim. Many people have lost a lot of family to cartel violence, and don’t want to follow their family to the cemetery, if they were lucky enough to be buried. Carlos Gutierrez, a 35 year-old resident of Chihuahua, says enforcers of La Linea cut his feet off because he couldn’t pay $10,000 a month in “fees” to pay Los Zetas the most cutthroat and ruthless cartel in Mexico. I don’t know anyone, personally, who makes $10,000 a month let alone can afford to give that away, however, with corruption so regular and widespread there is no one to defend the residents from the cartels. It is extremely upsetting to know this goes on in a country we are neighbors with and instead of taking care of local threats we’ve been focusing on other countries for the last dozen years, the Middle East and now Syria.

Sources Cited: Hastings, D. (2013) Fleeing wrath of vicious cartels, record-breaking numbers of Mexicans seek political asylum in the U.S., New York Daily News, no vol #, n.p.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/mexicans-fleeing-drug-cartel-mayhem-seek-ing-u-s-asylum-record-breaking-numbers-article-1.1493183#ixzz2inouNR5T

The Greek economy is predicted to recover in 2014, but...

Summary The Greek national budget for 2014 predicts a slight surplus, but critics believe that it is too optimistic and that the country is still far from an economic recovery. 

In a previous post, we wrote about how the Greek ministry of finance is optimistic about the budget for 2014, and how it is predicted that they will even have a slight budget surplus before interest. The economy is also predicted to grow by about 0.6%, mainly through exports, tourism and a rebound in investments. 

Now that the Greek crisis is showing slight improvements, the IMF and EU will be more open to the possibility of giving further aid and debt relief. However, there are several criticism about the 2014 budget which may derail Greece's plan and hope for 2014. First of all, the pension fund deficit is predicted to be higher than first assumed, while tax revenues might be lower than first expected, efficiently eating up the tiny surplus (about 340 million euro) that the Greek expected to have and more. Even if these factors were not present, there are serious doubts that Greece will ever be able to pay back its debt completely due to the sheer size of it. 

Also, an article in International Business Times from September 30th shows how retail sales decreased in July 2013. This was most likely a reflection of the fact that wages for employed greeks (there is still a 27% unemployment rate) have decreased by 7.5%, giving them even less spending power than they already have. As shown in other recessions, an important aspect of recovering an economy is to stimulate the economy by putting money back into hospitality and retail. 

As previously mentioned, a part of the predicted economic growth will be through tourism. However, tourism is an industry that is very sensitive to outside factors such as climate, political stability and trends. It also peaks during summer months, so predictions are hard to make since summers aren't necessarily an indication of how a country will be for the rest of the year. This summer, the political unrest in Northern Africa and Middle East gave holidayers incentives to go elsewhere, and the renewed faith in the Euro and Greece's place in the eurozone, let Greece benefit from these political factors. However, such factors can only be predicted to a certain degree, so the tourism for 2014 might bring in more money than predicted, but the pendulum can easily swing the other way too. 

As such, because the Greek budget for 2014 is so marginally in the surplus, it will not take a lot for it to go back in the red numbers. However, with new faith in Greece's ability to demand taxes and lower public spending, it will be easier for the country to attract more tourists. While the country will be in need of aid and bailouts from EU and the IMF for years to follow, it seems to have been able to put itself on the right track. 

Articles consulted and referred to in this post 
Reuters. "Greece set to emerge from recession next year, says draft 2014 budget." the Guardian. N.p., 7 Oct. 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2013. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/07/greece-euro.

Reuters. "Greece at odds with EU/IMF lenders over 2014 budget gap ." Reuters. N.p., 8 Oct. 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2013. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/18/greece-fiscalgap-idUSL6N0I827X20131018.

Rudarakanchana, Nat. "Greeks Not Bearing Gifts, Latest Economic Data Show." International Business Times. N.p., 30 Sept. 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2013. http://www.ibtimes.com/greeks-not-bearing-gifts-latest-economic-data-show-1412726.

Rudarakanchana, Nat. "Greek Tourism Could Boost GDP To Historic Levels – At Least For a Brief, Fleeting Period." International Business Times. N.p., 17 Sept. 2013. Web. 25 Oct. 2013. http://www.ibtimes.com/greek-tourism-could-boost-gdp-historic-levels-least-brief-fleeting-period-1406964.

EU and IMF to the rescue?

 
     The Greek budget for 2014 is starting to show light at the end of the tunnel. The Greek Government has predicted that there will be a slight budge surplus before interests are paid to its debtors. They have also announced that the economy is predicted to grow about 0.6%, mainly through exports, tourism, and a rebound in investments. 

     Now that the Greek crisis is showing slight improvements, the IMF and EU seemed to also open up to the possibility of further debt relief. However, critics continue to hold pessimistic opinions because the pension fund deficit is predicted to be higher than first assumed and tax revenues will be lower than first expected. These two points result in the Greek Government having less money to pay back their debts. They believe that Greece will never be able to recover from the debt they are in and rely way to heavily on aid from the EU and IMF. 

The Guardian. 2013 October 18. Greece set to emerge from rescession next yea, says draft 2014 Budget. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/07/greece-euro

Reuters. 2013 October 18. Greece at Odds with EU/IMF Lenders over 2014 Budget Gap.  http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/18/greece-fiscalgap-idUSL6N0I827X20131018